A Simple Investment Path for Those Worried About the Future
Author: William Moulod
Introduction
Let’s be real: investing feels intimidating. Analysts throw around PE ratios and discounted cash flows while most of us just want to know one thing — where should I put my money so it grows and doesn’t disappear?
Here’s the good news: as a retail investor, you actually have an edge. While the pros are stuck following rigid models, quarterly reports, and institutional rules, you can think longer, act faster, and take smarter risks.
And nowhere is that advantage clearer than with Big Tech — the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. These aren’t just stocks. They’re platforms, economies, and digital infrastructure all rolled into one. Despite always being "expensive," they've consistently outperformed because their business models are practically built to win.
In a world where AI is reinforcing monopolies and compounding power, ignoring these companies might not just cost you returns — it might leave you behind.
Part 1: Quality Companies Are Rarely Cheap, but That’s the Point
Warren Buffett said it best: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
Big Tech companies almost never trade "cheap" — but that’s because they rarely deserve to. Their moats are too strong:
Amazon: Dominates global e-commerce and cloud (AWS). Prime and logistics scale make them impossible to compete with.
Microsoft: Enterprise lock-in, Azure cloud growth, LinkedIn network, GitHub developer ecosystem.
Google: Search is a utility. YouTube is the new TV. Android runs the mobile internet.
Morningstar labels all three with a "Wide Economic Moat" — Wall Street's way of saying: these companies have serious staying power.
Source: Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings
Part 2: AI Isn’t a Disruptor. It’s a Moat Multiplier
There’s this myth that AI will level the playing field. In reality, it’s making the biggest players even stronger.
Why?
Data: The best AI models feed on data. These giants already have more than anyone.
Compute: AI training requires massive infrastructure — AWS, Azure, Google Cloud already dominate.
Distribution: Microsoft plugs AI into Office. Google into Search. Amazon into logistics and AWS.
McKinsey says over 50% of companies using AI at scale rely on just three platforms: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
Source: McKinsey & Company, "The State of AI in 2023"
These aren’t startups figuring things out. They’re giants building the roads the rest of the economy travels on.
But here’s the kicker: as these companies grow and integrate AI deeper into their operations, they’ll start cutting costs at scale. Customer service, sales, logistics, engineering workflows — AI will eliminate or optimize entire layers of operations.
That means margins will expand even further. Profitability will increase without needing to increase headcount.
This creates a secondary effect: more wealth concentrated in fewer companies, while many traditional jobs disappear or change rapidly. It's a shift that raises very real questions about inequality and the future of work — and underpins the growing argument for concepts like universal basic income.
But as an investor, there’s a way to stay on the right side of this transformation: own equity in the exact companies that benefit most. You’re not just investing for returns — you’re gaining exposure to the upside of this massive productivity shift. In a way, it helps offset the broader risk of being left behind economically.
Part 3: Your Retail Superpower
Most people think Wall Street has the advantage. But institutional investors are tied up in red tape:
Can’t hold “overvalued” stocks
Must rebalance quarterly
Chase benchmarks
You? You don’t have to play that game.
You can:
Take a 5–10 year view
Ignore the noise
Buy based on vision, not valuation
That’s how wealth is built.
If you’d bought Amazon in 2013 at 75x earnings — a number that would terrify most analysts — you’d be up over 900% today.
Source: YCharts historical AMZN data
Time and conviction beat spreadsheets.
Part 4: Now Might Be Your Window
These companies don’t stay “affordable” for long. But right now, you’ve got:
Amazon trading below its long-term PE average
Google with a PEG ratio under 1.5
Microsoft continuing to compound while paying a dividend
Free cash flow is ramping. AI is unlocking new revenue. And the market still doesn’t fully get it.
Part 5: Uber — The Wild Card
Not quite in the Big Tech club, but Uber’s building a moat:
Profitability for the first time
Growing loyalty with Uber One
Dominating mobility + delivery logistics
Uber has room to surprise. It’s not a must-own, but as a side bet? Definitely interesting.
Source: Uber Investor Relations
Part 6: Responsible Investing — Do Your Own Due Diligence
Conviction is great, but blind faith isn’t a strategy. Even when looking at dominant companies, you should dig into their fundamentals.
What to look for:
Consistent Free Cash Flow: Is the company generating real cash, not just accounting profit?
Revenue Growth: Are they still expanding into new verticals or markets?
Margins: Healthy operating and net margins suggest pricing power and efficiency.
Balance Sheet Strength: Low debt, high liquidity, and cash reserves are green flags.
Return on Capital: High ROIC usually signals smart capital allocation.
Real Example — Microsoft:
Free cash flow (TTM): ~$68B
Operating Margin: ~43%
Return on Invested Capital: ~30%
Net Cash Position: Yes
Dividend Growth: ~10% CAGR over 5 years
Source: Microsoft Financials, Macrotrends
These are the kinds of metrics that support the “moat” story — and help you invest with confidence.
Conclusion: You Have an Edge, Use It
Don’t let Wall Street’s valuation rules scare you off. You aren’t stuck reporting to a board. You don’t have to explain to clients why you held Amazon too long. You’re free to bet on the obvious — and Big Tech is still the obvious bet.
These aren’t just growth stories. They’re the foundation of the future economy. And being exposed to them is no longer optional if you want to stay in the game.
So, retail investors, here’s the play: Stop timing the market. Start owning the winners.
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is today."
