Competence and Success: Breaking the Illusion

Author: William Moulod

Introduction

The connection between competence and success is one of the greatest illusions perpetuated by society. Many assume that those who achieve success are inherently smarter, more talented, or harder-working. But after years of building businesses from scratch—starting with no money, no connections, and no safety net—I’ve come to a stark realization: success and competence are not correlated.

This isn’t a lesson I learned overnight. It was a personal battle to break through the gatekeeping of resources, capital, and opportunity while coming to terms with how the world really works. Research increasingly backs this up, revealing that success often hinges on factors outside of raw competence, such as timing, privilege, and sheer luck. The free market doesn’t care about fairness, and success is rarely about being the "best" in the room. Instead, it rewards adaptability, resilience, and the ability to navigate an imperfect system.

The Myth of Correlation

Growing up with nothing, I believed the narrative that success was purely about competence. I assumed that if you were talented enough, worked hard enough, and solved enough problems, the world would naturally recognize and reward you.

But studies reveal otherwise:

1. Luck Plays a Disproportionate Role
   Research by physicists Alessandro Pluchino and Andrea Rapisarda showed that luck plays a far greater role in success than most people assume. Their 2018 study, published in Nature Communications, used computer simulations to model success over a 40-year career span. It found that the most successful individuals were not the most talented but those who encountered a combination of competence and the right opportunities at the right time.

2. Access is Unequal
   A 2017 report from the Brookings Institution found that "opportunity hoarding" is prevalent in high-income families, where social networks and access to better education give individuals a massive head start. Meanwhile, those in lower-income brackets face systemic barriers that talent alone cannot overcome.

3. Survivor Bias Distorts Reality
   Survivor bias, a concept studied in behavioral economics, highlights how we focus on visible successes while ignoring the countless failures that had equal competence but lacked favorable circumstances. Economist Robert H. Frank’s book Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy argues that even highly competent individuals rarely succeed without some element of chance.

These findings align with my personal journey. The more I worked, the clearer it became that gatekeeping, timing, and luck mattered just as much as hard work or skill.

My Personal Battle with the Truth

As someone who came from nothing, I didn’t have the luxury of naivety for long. I started my businesses with no outside funding, making them self-reliant and profitable from day one. While this approach gave me independence, it also meant facing every obstacle head-on:

• No Safety Net: Unlike many entrepreneurs who can fail and try again without dire consequences, I couldn’t afford failure.

• Fighting Gatekeeping: Without access to capital or networks, I had to over-deliver on every project just to be taken seriously.

• Feeling Like an Outsider: My perspective, shaped by resilience and self-reliance, often clashed with the business world's reliance on appearances and trends.

Over time, I stopped expecting the world to reward competence on its own. Instead, I focused on playing the long game—building resilience, understanding leverage, and creating opportunities where none existed.

Competence Isn’t Enough—And That’s Okay

This journey taught me that competence is necessary but insufficient for success. You can be brilliant and still struggle if you don’t understand the realities of the game. Success, I’ve found, is less about being the best and more about:

1. Adapting to Reality
   A Harvard Business Review article on leadership emphasizes that adaptability, not intelligence or technical skill, is the single greatest predictor of long-term success. Leaders who can pivot, learn, and respond to challenges are more likely to thrive.

2. Leveraging Strengths
   Combining competence with timing and execution creates outsized results. A study by the University of Chicago found that 88% of venture capital funding goes to people within existing networks, often regardless of merit. For outsiders like me, learning to operate independently was key.

3. Staying in the Game
   Resilience is what allows you to outlast the noise and short-term thinkers. Research from the American Psychological Association highlights how individuals with higher resilience consistently perform better in high-stress environments, not because they are smarter but because they endure longer.

Finding Hidden Alphas: The Real Opportunity

One of the most valuable lessons from my journey has been recognizing that talent and competence exist everywhere, not just at the top. In fact, research confirms that some of the most capable people are overlooked because they don’t fit the conventional mold of success.

1. Undervalued Individuals
   A report from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that talent is distributed equally across socio-economic groups, but opportunities are not. This creates a "hidden alpha" effect—talented individuals who thrive when given a chance.

2. Overlooked Niches
   The success of companies like Dollar Shave Club or Bombas Socks proves that seemingly mundane markets hold massive potential for those willing to look.

3. Resilient Players
   Studies show that individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds often develop higher grit and resilience, traits that correlate strongly with long-term success (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).

Building relationships with these hidden alphas has been one of the most rewarding parts of my career. They’re not chasing hype or shortcuts—they’re focused, capable, and hungry to prove themselves.

Success Is a Marathon, Not a Sprint

The belief that success is a sprint is one of the biggest traps in business. People rush for quick wins, flashy achievements, or instant validation, only to burn out or fail when the hype dies down. True success is a long-distance game where resilience and persistence matter more than brilliance.

My journey has been a marathon, marked by setbacks, lessons, and steady growth. Along the way, I’ve seen countless "noise-makers" and "gold diggers" fade into obscurity because they lacked the patience to play for the long term.

A Perspective from the Outside

I’ve always felt like an outsider in the business world, and I’ve come to embrace it. My perspective on life and business doesn’t align with the mainstream, but that’s been my edge.

• I see the free market as a tool, not a moral judge. It rewards results, not intentions or entitlement.

• I understand that success is about leverage and adaptation, not raw competence alone.

• I value resilience over flashiness, long-term thinking over short-term wins.

This outsider mindset has allowed me to build businesses that are not only profitable but sustainable—companies that don’t rely on hype or external funding to survive.

Conclusion

Competence and success are not inherently correlated, and that’s a liberating realization. Research and personal experience show that while competence is necessary, it’s the ability to adapt, endure, and leverage opportunities that truly defines success.

For those of us who’ve come from nothing, the journey is tougher but also more rewarding. By accepting the realities of the free market and focusing on resilience, strategy, and spotting hidden opportunities, we can build success on our own terms.

The world doesn’t owe anyone success, but it does offer endless possibilities for those willing to adapt and persevere. That’s the real path—not fairness, but opportunity. And it’s yours to claim.